Solar storm 2012 - Should we worry?

Solar storm 2012 - Should we worry?

 When the solar minimum occurred, sunspots disappeared and the flames of the sun disappeared. The sun suddenly became very quiet, just like atmosphere of calm which usually appear before a big storm hit.Last year, 2012 issue that is associated with the Mayan calendar and the solar storms become one of the hottest topics discussed by many people. The issue began to subside when many scientists, including NASA's own, issued a statement rejecting speculation apocalypse due to solar storm in 2012. However, in August 2011, a research journal of an Australian astronomer named David Reneke again raised this issue. Suddenly, the issue of solar storms and 2012 again became a hot issue in this month. Should we worry?Some marketers believe that Judgement Day 2012, a super solar storm will fry the Earth and everything in it. This means the end of the world total for the earth as depicted in the movie Knowing. Although this prediction is disputed by scientists, including NASA itself, but at least all agree that the coming solar storm might bring damage to communications networks worldwide.Massive destruction of the telecommunications system as it's happened in 1859 when the occurrence of events known as the Carrington event.
  
Carrington Event 
On September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington, the sun celebrated British astronomer who was then 33 years old, was in the observatory while making observations.As usual, Carrington observed the sun through the image projected on a screen generated by the telescope. He carefully drew the visible sunspots.Suddenly, in front of his eyes, he saw two points of blinding white light that appears above the black spots of the sun. Point it looks more intense light and immediately turn into such a kidney.

    "I immediately ran to call others to participate witnessed it. When I came back 60 seconds later, I was surprised because the point it has changed shape."The scene only lasted for 5 minutes. But what caused to the planet earth will always be remembered as one of the most astonishing astronomical events (or scary) that has ever happened.What Carrington saw was a white flame of the sun (solar flare White) that arise from the sun's magnetic explosion. The explosion not only produce light visible to the eye, but also produces a super giant cloud of particles that emit a magnetic vortex, known as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).CME was created to move directly toward the Earth and arrive in just 18 hours. It's quite remarkable, considering that generally the way it will be taken in 3 or 4 days. When the CME hit the Earth, the magnetic field surrounding the earth to be disturbed so as to create the biggest geomagnetic storm ever recorded in history. 

The sky above the earth immediately filled with Aurora red, green and purple. The lights were so extraordinary that looks dark night lit up like daylight. Remarkably, the aurora can be seen that even in tropical regions such as Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica and Hawaii.However, the effect is not only there. Performing the beautiful aurora was accompanied by considerable damage to communication systems in Europe and America.Suddenly, the whole telegraph system in chaos. Sparks looks at the telegraph machines so shocking operator on duty. Even when the battery is disconnected the telegraph, the electric current induced by the aurora make these machines can still send a message.This event gives new meaning to the astronomers on the solar activity and its impact on human life.Within 2 or 3 years from now, there is a possibility that we could face similar problems. Warning this is what was recently given by David Reneke who published his predictions in the Journal of Australasian Science.

Overview of Solar Storms

 There are many misconceptions about this phenomenon of solar storms. For those who do not understand, solar storms are often regarded as an extraordinary event which is very rare. Though not so.The sun has an average cycle of 11 years (between 9-14 years) who started from the period of low activity, called Solar Minimum, until the period in which the activity increased, which is called the Solar Maximum. Last solar maximum occurred in 2000.Thus, the solar storm is not really strange events are rare. Fenemena this is a normal part of the life cycle of the sun.

During the period of solar maximum, appearing Spot Sun (sunspots), the dark spots on the sun's surface caused by the magnetic field lines break through the surface of the sun.Because the sun is not solid objects like the Earth, different parts of the Sun rotate at different speeds as well. This will cause the magnetic field lines become chaotic, causing the formation of the Solar Flare (flame of the sun) which is sometimes accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).This event is often referred to as the Sun Solar Storm or Hurricane.If the CME is moving toward Earth, carrying the particles will hit the Earth's magnetosphere which would then create the aurora.

Prediction David Reneke
 Back to the prediction Reneke, he says, solar storms that will occur in 2012 has the potential to hit Earth with a force equivalent to 100 million atoms of hydrogen bombs. This power will certainly destroy the entire system of satellites around the world, who fear will bring the earth back to the stone age.Of course this prediction is not something new because similar events have occurred in previous years. However, the concern by Reneke is a potential strength."Generally, the astronomers agree that the upcoming solar maximum will be the most powerful in 100 years." Reneke said."Some believe that these events will affect airlines, telecommunications companies and anyone who works with modern GPS systems. The storm is capable of turning off an orbiting satellite." He added.Then how to respond other astronomers?NASA itself is not too worried about these events, but they are already anticipating this storm since 2006. They also estimate that these storms could affect power plants in various places so that not only the telecommunications industry or the troubled airline, but also other industries such as banking and related to it.The storm was expected to occur in late 2012. But they also recognize that no one will ever know for sure how much effect the damage that can be caused.National Academy of Sciences of the United States have estimated that the damage that may occur could bring a loss of about 1 to 2 trillion U.S. dollars and takes up to 10 years to recover fully.Solar storm in a fairly large scale have occurred also in 1989 and caused a blackout across Quebec, Canada. In the solar storm of 2003, Sweden and South Africa also suffered a similar fate.Then, a simple question often asked by many people. If true super solar storm occurred in 2012, whether the storm would produce a flame that could devour the whole earth and everything in it like in the movie Knowing?The answer is: No!

What will happen? 
Although it sounded so chaotic, real human beings and other living creatures on earth safely protected. At the time of the previous solar storms, living things on Earth are totally unaffected. However, the technology that we have indeed susceptible to this phenomenon.Just as happened in 1859, or the year when Quebec, Sweden and South Africa made blackout, solar storms that will come to shed our communication system.Given our very dependent on the telecommunications network infrastructure, the telecom collapse events may lead to paralysis of the other systems, such as finance and transport.A strong blast of solar storms that could bring damage to the intervening power source and our communication lines. This will cause the system to become overloaded and eventually damaged.According to a report issued by the National Academy of Science United States, when the storm occurred, about 300 power plants in America can be paralyzed in just 90 seconds. This will disconnect the electricity supply to 130 million inhabitants.Having cut off the power grid, water supply will also be disconnected. Without electricity and water supplies, then the economy will be paralyzed. No office activity and transportation such as airplanes or trains. Even the vital facilities such as military bases or hospitals will also be paralyzed. In other words Chaos!However, it is the worst-case scenario.The good news is, humans have learned from the past.Space agency NASA and other countries in the world has to know clearly that solar flares could cripple the satellite system. Because of that long ago, NASA has sent several spacecraft to monitor solar activity. Currently, these vehicles, such as ACE or SOHO, still diligently watching the changes that occur in solar activity.

If the probe detects a CME, then the sensor will immediately generate an alert that gives enough time for human beings of the earth (us) to take anticipatory steps, such as changing our satellite system into "safe mode". Thus, the resulting damage will be very minimal. The same anticipation also been made to the infrastructure and other power sources.Yup, we really have learned. Just as we have learned to anticipate the Millennium Bug Y2K 10 years ago.Because it is the opinion of David Reneke also got quite a lot of criticism. For example, from his fellow Australian astronomer named Dr.. Phil Wilkinson from Bureu of Meteorology Ionospheric Prediction Service.According to him, damage to the satellite will be very minimal. In fact, he rejected the notion that solar storms that will happen is the strongest in the last 100 years."All these statements are selling, but I'm sure everything is too much." He said. "The message really is, the solar storms that will come together just as dangerous as solar storms before."Dr. Wilkinson also said that even if the communication system is disrupted, then nature will only be temporary and local. In addition, he had another reason. According to the monitoring of the astronomers, the solar activity cycle this time was not as strong as previously thought. This makes solar astronomers believe that the sun may be entering a period of "little ice age". These observations are inversely proportional to the prediction Reneke.So, no need to worry.

 Disaster Plan
 Well, now, suppose you are still concerned about the solar storm in 2012, you might ask: "What if David Reneke correct? Then what should I do to prepare themselves to face this disaster?"Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a disaster management agency in the United States, have an answer to this question. Since a long time they also have anticipated the possibility of damage to infrastructure caused by this phenomenon.According to Craig Fugate, FEMA administrator, at least, the effects of solar storms is probably about the same as the effects of natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods or earthquakes. Thus, he argues, the standard preparation is adequate. Such as storing water supplies, food, P3K equipment, spare batteries and flashlights and cooking utensils.In other words, what we need to prepare the same as preparing for natural disasters in general.Therefore, no need to worry at all. If our telecommunications system is paralyzed, we can not use a mobile phone, blackberry or facebook. However, I believe we will still survive.